Uribe’s Calculus

Since I have started writing this blog, rarely have I noticed any action taken by Colombian president Alvaro Uribe that was not meticulously planned for maximum political effect both at home and in Washington. From record drug seizures just as the U.S. Congress was about to debate another round of funding for Plan Colombia, to the capture of narcotics “capo” Don Diego, just days after the Washington Post published a story detailing high-level infiltration of the Colombian military by Don Diego’s Norte del Valle Drug Cartel, the Uribe administration is keenly aware of the political impact its actions have on pending U.S. legislation.

This weekend’s attack against a guerrilla camp just inside the Ecuadorian border that left “Raul Reyes” the number two leader of the FARC dead, was no exception. Indeed, on the morning of the attack, Uribe met with a U.S. congressional delegation visiting Colombia to discuss the Free Trade Agreement between the US and Colombia (he reportedly arrived late for the meeting, having been delayed by the morning’s events). The Colombian weekly Semana is reporting a new thrust by Uribe to push for a vote on the Free Trade Agreement, commonly referred to by its Spanish initials, TLC. Perhaps more significantly for Uribe, are the positive responses to the attack that have been made not only by the Bush administration, but by the two Democratic candidates Clinton and Obama. Such support is likely to have important payoffs in the future with regard to continued funding for Plan Colombia.

Within Colombia the attack against the FARC has further increased Uribe’s popularity and could spur renewed calls to amend Colombia’s constitution to allow Uribe to run for a third term. So the long-term benefits for Uribe are likely to outweigh the stinging criticism by Ecuador, Venezuela, and the Organization of American States for having violated Ecuador’s sovereignty.